Plastic warehouse in the fire is short, and the re

Sinochem warehouse receipt: bad news pours on the face and it is difficult to rebound.

I. Market Review

in this period (September 25 - October 11), futures oil hovered around $60. Coupled with the surge of petrochemical price reduction, the trading market in Zhejiang Plastic City experienced a rebound adjustment and wide-ranging fluctuation. The comprehensive index of China Plastics warehouse receipts is between 1251.57 and 1292.90 points, which is in a sensitive range. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is weakening, with frequent short-term in and out, and some traders are mainly on the sidelines. At the beginning of the period, after the main warehouse orders hit the bottom, they continued to jump high, the entry of new funds was obvious, and the market showed a rebound situation; At the end of the period, induced by negative factors such as the sharp fall of futures oil, the warehouse receipt index began to decline, the market bottomed again, the downward momentum weakened, and it was difficult to stabilize in the future. The highlights of this period are: on September 25, the trading volume of PP warehouse receipts hit a record high of 22635 tons; On October 11, the order volume of pp0612 changed frequently during the session, and there were many deficiencies in foreign made products at the end of the session, hitting a four month low. By the end of the month, the total market turnover was 222025 tons, and the average daily turnover was nearly 22203. The functions and characteristics of the digital display hydraulic universal testing machine: the oil delivery valve and oil return valve were manually controlled, and the total order volume at the end of the period reached 49805 tons, a sharp decrease compared with the previous period

II. Comments on each warehouse receipt

(I) PE

LLDPE is bottoming out and finishing the market in a wide range this period. On the 25th, the main warehouse receipt ll0612 opened sharply lower at 11650 yuan/ton, and fell slightly in the intraday to 11619 yuan/ton. The entity is a small negative line with bare heads and bare feet; On the 30th, the K-line entity closed at the settlement price of 12071 yuan/ton, which was a bare headed and barefoot male line, forming a Twilight star form with the day before yesterday, ending this wave of rebound; By the end of the period, the main warehouse receipt ll0612 opened low and went high, the transaction volume contracted, and the decline volume was insufficient

from the perspective of technology, according to the weekly line, the main warehouse receipt ll0612 entity intersects with the 5-day moving average, which is a star line shape with a small entity. At the beginning of the period, it was pressured by the 5-day moving average, opened low and walked low on the 25th, fluctuated in a narrow range in the early stage, closed and fell in the middle and rear, and closed the upper shadow short negative line on the daily K-line chart, forming a large gap with the previous trading day. On the 30 minute K-line chart, the tombstone cross star was closed at the end of the day, and the trading volume was reduced, and the exploration space was limited; On October 8, stimulated by the sharp decline of crude oil, the market ended the last round of bottoming rebound, and the main warehouse receipts closed down at the opening, with the index falling by 16.50 points; On the 11th, the short positive line was closed on the K-line, and the entity returned to the moving average. Five days later, on the 30 minute K-line chart, the trading center moved up in turn. From a fundamental point of view, plastic warehouse receipts are deeply affected by the ups and downs of futures oil. The trend of crude oil has seriously affected the mentality of traders, and the market trends of both follow suit; On the other hand, at the end of the period, there was a collective decline in the ex factory price of domestic petrochemicals of various brands, and bad news pervaded the market, aggravating the wait-and-see mentality. On the whole, the LLDPE warehouse receipt market price is in a sensitive area, and the wide range shock will continue. By the 11th, the settlement price of LLDPE warehouse receipt was 11985 yuan/ton in October, 11993 yuan/ton in November, 11925 yuan/ton in December, 11913 yuan/ton in ll0701 and 11625 yuan/ton in ll0703

hdpe market is also basically similar to LLDPE. The settlement price of hd0611 warehouse receipt, the main warehouse receipt, was consolidated between 12358 yuan/ton and 12568 yuan/ton. The double volume was basically flat compared with the previous period. The warehouse receipt index at the end of the period was 962.01 points, the lowest in history. It closed a short negative line with a long shadow on the daily K line, and crossed the 10 average line on the 5-day average. The Commission data showed that the buyer was slightly better than the buyer. By the close of trading on the 11th, the settlement prices in October, November, December and January 2007 were 12300, 12358, 12220 and 12300 yuan/ton respectively. In view of the long shadow hammer line in the late trading, if there is no other bad news, the market outlook will not rule out continuous volatility

(II) PP

PP the current market is mainly characterized by a small rebound and shock consolidation. The market rose from 1273.55 points to 1314.59 and then fell to 1283.85. From the current form of PP's main warehouse receipt pp0612, the entity at the end of the period adjusted below the 5-day average in the form of a short positive line. A large number of intraday transactions and sharply reduced orders have a negative impact on the downward trend. If it continues to decline in the short term, it may cause an oversold rebound. At the beginning of the period, all varieties fell by more than 150 yuan/ton, and the proportion of PP trading was seriously unbalanced; On the 30th, the PP warehouse receipt index closed at 1314.67, up 6.41 points from the previous close. The daily K-line was in the form of a bald head and a short Yang. In the KDJ index, the j-line probe entered the oversold area, and the market was very bullish and changed hands frequently; As of October 11, from the perspective of the disk situation, the sharp decrease in the order volume was the biggest bright spot of today's market, with frequent intraday changes, which significantly weakened the momentum of the market decline. In terms of double volume, the closing order volume decreased significantly, hitting a new low in four months, the transaction volume was large, the warehouse receipts changed hands frequently, and there was no obvious short covering phenomenon. On the whole, a large number of short profit taking have a certain inhibitory effect on the declining market, the market psychology has changed, and the future trend is difficult to stabilize. On September 25, PP warehouse receipts were sold at a large volume of 22635 tons, a record high; In addition, the order volume of the main warehouse receipt pp0612 decreased sharply, and frequent turnover became the highlight of this period. The settlement price of PP warehouse receipt is 12736 yuan/ton in October, 12267 yuan/ton in November, 12097 yuan/ton in December, 11991 yuan/ton in January 2007 and 11906 yuan/ton in March 2007. On the whole, PP warehouse receipts are still affected by many negative factors and are difficult to recover

(III) ABS

the overall performance of this period is a rebound and higher situation. In view of the stable ex factory price and small inventory of goods, coupled with the cold market, the transaction of ABS warehouse receipts is also quite depressed. Unlike other warehouse receipts, ABS is steadily rising. The settlement price of the main warehouse receipt ab0611 is basically between 14422-14571 yuan/ton, and the rebound space is within 150. The sharp decline of crude oil in this period confused the market mentality. It is expected that although the price of ABS market has not changed much recently, the fluctuation of crude oil price still affects the mentality of traders. The settlement price is 14850 yuan/ton in October, 14552 yuan/ton in November and 14320 yuan/ton in December

(IV) PVC

relative to a closed-loop control system

the transaction in this period is light, the market confidence is lost, the main price range of main warehouse receipts is lower than that in the previous period, and the transaction is deadlocked between yuan/ton. On the PV K-line chart, at the beginning of the period, the entity basically adjusted in a narrow range below the 5-day average, and the transaction did not fully keep up; In the medium term, there was an upward trend of 5-day moving average, but the order volume decreased significantly; At the end of the period, it returned to below the 5-day moving average, and the market basically belongs to the consolidation stage of small shocks. The settlement price is 7350 yuan/ton in October, 7300 yuan/ton in November and 7110 yuan/ton in December. From the PVC China plastic warehouse receipt index chart, PVC is in the shock downward stage. On the whole, the fundamental support is weak, and the market wait-and-see is obvious. In view of the current market situation and the status of all parties, it is expected that the market will continue to be depressed

III. future forecast

crude oil prices continued to rise and fall around $60. At the end of the period, there was another wave of petrochemical price reduction, which hit the mentality of traders and caused frequent short-term operations, some of which retreated and waited. On the whole, the current warehouse receipt market lacks a strong support point to break the tenacious trend, and traders are confused and at a loss. However, from the late trading pattern, there are rebound requirements in the future, and the range is always limited. The overall market is basically sorted out broadly with the fluctuation of the energy market

note: in this reprint, it is guaranteed that the speed accuracy is indicated at 0.5% of the indicated value. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content